The fossil fuels-dependent energy sector of Pakistan is the biggest contributor to the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. According to UNEP, the sector contributed 45% of the 489 megatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in the country in 2018. By 2050, energy is expected to make up 64 per cent of the total emissions in Pakistan. While Pakistan’s distress from climate change is well known, the ongoing smog in Punjab is also a reminder that the country stands as third in the most polluted countries’ index.

In this backdrop, the energy choices made by Pakistan are of critical significance. The Government of Pakistan has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2030. As a part of meeting this goal, the government has started paying attention to the renewables energy options available. While its renewables energy promotion policy has largely been a hostage to the interests of the fossil fuels lobby and the dictates of the IFIs, it has still gone ahead to sanction large scale hydro projects, counting them as renewables –  a controversial move challenged by environmentalists and water experts.

Another interesting development being keenly watched by experts is the renewables boom that has taken place in the country on self-help basis by the common citizens. Since 2021, there has been a rise of 155% in electricity prices in the country. As a response to the increase electricity prices, the government has eased up restrictions on the import of solar panels, though distributed generation is still a costly venture due to import dependency. However, this has not stopped industrial and domestic consumers from turning to solar as an option. In year 2024 alone, there has been an import of 14GW solar capacity in the country, according to a study by Renewables First. To put this in perspective, it is important to note that the as of the end of March 2024, the country’s total installed electricity capacity stands at 42,131 MW, while during FY2024 (July-March), total electricity consumption was reported at 68,559 GWh, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2023-24.

The rise in solar energy demand is also accompanied by a fall in electricity demand from the national grid. In August 2024, this fall was registered at 17%. As household consumers make up half of the electricity demand in the country, the shift away from the grid and towards solar may carry repercussions for the consumption trends in the country. In a recent consultation titled “Sindh Energy Dialogue” organised by The Knowledge Forum, experts pointed to an increased demand in air conditioning accompanying the rise in the demand for solar panel. The resultant heat generated from AC use may contribute to heat effect in cities already grappling with prolonged heatwaves.

Despite developments in the renewables market, the Government of Pakistan, and the natural resource rich province of Sindh have been aggressively investing in coal, gas and hydro resources for energy generation. Experts have warned of the cost to the local communities, as well as to Pakistan’s economy of the large scale infrastructure projects which may end up as stranded cost as consumers increasingly turn to private solutions for energy.